After two losses in two consecutive finals, picture looks a bit worrisome yet not so gloomy for team India. To look for happy days, we don’t need to go very far down the memory lanes – CB series win will do it for us. Just after the series, India was looking such a formidable side that it looked clear favourites in Kitply cup as well as Asia Cup. On the other hand, Australia definitely looked beatable especially when they had lost 3 of their 6 matches in the competition to India with one being washed out at an evenly poised stage. Few months and an IPL later, team India looks a jaded lot where as Australians have done what they are best at – crush their opposition completely (They beat West Indies in their den by 5-0 margin). Clearly, the consistency shows up here. If CB series was a rare blemish in Australia’s records, India notched up their performance than their normal level.

 
Now, in an ODI, winning is all about scoring at as faster pace as possible and loosing as fewer wickets as possible because loosing wickets hampers the run rate. When it comes to bowling, you have to take wickets at faster pace at a slower rate. In other words, your run rate per over has to be better than your opponents and may be you should take more wickets by giving away lesser runs than your opposition.

In my analysis, I consider four teams – Australia as they are truly world champions, India as they are my favourites, Sri Lanka as they have played really well in last five years and have been runners up in last world cup and South Africa as they are always considered a tough opposition to
beat. The time line considered is 5 years from today.

A look at the table above tells us clearly why Australia has been a true champion over the years especially with win loss ratio 3.22 in the last 5 years. They score 14.87 runs per wicket more than their opposition at a scoring rate faster by 0.69 runs per wicket. Sri Lanka scores lesser runs per wicket than South Africa yet have a better win loss ratio. With more number of matches played on Sri Lankan ground where their spinners just choke the opposition, their run rate conceded is best. May be their better net run rate has an effect there. A look at India’s number tells that although they score more than 3 runs per wicket but also concede maximum number of runs per wicket. This clearly tells the inability of their bowlers to take wicket. Their bowlers are also the most expansive of the lot conceding more than 5 runs per over.

Out of the total number of matches played per year, Australia seems be the best scheduler for their calendar year. Generally they play 25-29 matches per year although the figure was higher in the world cup year at 34. South Africa play 19 to 22 matches per year with more matches in world cup year at 30. India and Sri Lanka are far ahead in the number of matches they play every year.

If we divide runs per wicket scored by runs per over scored, the number that comes out to be over/wicket i.e. for how many overs a batsman stays at the crease. If the same number is calculated for the opposition and we subtract it from team’s number, it gives us how many more number of overs a batsman has been able to stay at the crease. Although the loophole is this methodology is that in case of no wicket lost in an innings, average is not calculated. But since it is safe to assume that such a scenario rarely occurs especially for the teams other than Australia, we can neglect this. The below figure gives an idea about how many more overs a batsman has been able to survive as compared to the opposition. Australia has been the clear leader here. On an average, their batsmen survive 1.95 overs more than the opposition.

South Africa comes second with the same number being 1.24 followed by Sri Lanka at 0.46. India just manages 0.20. Not that their batsmen do not survive at the crease long enough, but their opponents survive longer which makes the number small.

The figure below gives the Win/Loss ratio of these teams over the last 5 years. Surprisingly, Australia has come down from 5.75 to 2.66. Although, 3 of their 25 matches could not be completed. Had they won those 3, the same would have gone to 3.67.  Their worst period was 2005-2005 when they lost 8 of their 28 matches. Any team will happily walk away with this record BUT this is Australia. South Africa has been almost unbeatable in this period with losing only 3 out of 19 games.  India had its best run in 2005-2006 in Dravid-Chapell regime which was terrible for Sri Lanka. They lost a series 6-1 to India then.   

If we try to look at figure 1 and figure 2 at one go, we see that South Africa are winning more matches when their batsmen are surviving more at the crease as compare to their opponents. Same could be said about India and may be Sri Lanka. Although this number seems to be not as important for Australia as their batsmen were staying at the crease by 2.66 overs more than their opponents although their win loss ratio stayed at 3.12 (In 2006-2007), lesser than the peak 5.75. I have no explanation for this. May be they don’t stay at the crease that longer than others but score their runs fast enough to win so many matches.

Although above analysis does not consider the quality of opposition or the venue which does have an impact on these numbers. But I am just doing what an analyst does, take out some numbers and try to build a story around them.   

 - Vibhash